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In a recent report, Lazard noted that consensus expectations for earnings growth in South Korea in 2024-2025 are close to 70%, driven by a recovery in its information-technology sector.

#WALL STREET JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION HOLD FREE#

“You’ve got improving returns on capital, you’ve got a better growth dynamic, and you’ve got EM central banks that will be free to cut rates more.'

“You’ve got this interesting geopolitical shift creating opportunities in countries outside of China,' Temple said. In contrast, economic growth in emerging markets could be stronger, which may lead investors to reassess valuations there. looks set to avoid a recession, Temple thinks developed economies may be sluggish in 2024. “That means they can cut rates more.'Ĭountries including Brazil, Uruguay, Chile, Peru and Poland have cut rates this year, while central banks are on hold in many other emerging markets. “But if developed market rates are coming down then there’s less vulnerability for currencies,' Temple said. and eurozone had presented a challenge to central banks in emerging markets, which had to follow suit to protect their currencies and export advantage. Temple said the rapid rise in interest rates in the U.S. That is faster than China’s economic growth, which the IMF estimates will be 5.4% in 2023. The International Monetary Fund puts India’s economic growth at 6.3% for its fiscal year through March, while India’s central bank is expecting a figure of 6.5%. India’s Nifty index, tracking the country’s top 50 companies on the National Stock Exchange, has soared by over a fifth since the end of March, outperforming the S&P 500 and most other major markets. India shows the returns on offer to investors. “It’s going to other emerging markets in all likelihood.' or Europe or Australia,' Temple said in an interview.

“My view, based on the data we’ve analyzed, is that the money coming out of China is not going back to the U.S. It also represents a bet on the interest-rate cycle, with emerging markets potentially outpacing the Federal Reserve when lowering borrowing costs. Ron Temple, Lazard’s chief market strategist, said money flows appear to have shifted toward emerging markets such as India, Vietnam and Mexico rather than diverting back to developed countries, and this is creating opportunities for investors. officials tightening rules around the sale of artificial intelligence-enabling chips to China. Tensions have intensified further since then, illustrated by U.S. Thomas email address, you will need to cancel that subscription before you can add the subscription provided by St Thomas.Foreign direct investment in China shrank for the first time in 25 years during the latest quarter as Beijing and Washington sparred over technology deemed sensitive to national security and critical minerals used in electric vehicles.

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